Executive summary
Cities are already home to a majority of people on the planet. The
current level of urbanisation ranges from 82% of the population in
North America to 40% in Africa. But all regions are expected to
follow this trend towards greater urbanisation over the next three
decades. Lagos, the most populous city Nigeria, is predicted to
double in size in the next 15 years.
However, cities should not take continued population growth for
granted. As the UN’s latest World Urbanisation Prospects study
points out, some cities have experienced population decline
because of, among other things, low fertility rates, economic
contraction and natural disasters. The population of Seoul, the
capital of South Korea, has shrunk by 800,000 since 1990.
Likewise, the safety of cities can ebb and flow. New York recorded
a record high of 2,245 homicides in 1990, equating to six murders
per day. Since then the population has grown by over 1m people,
while homicide rates have fallen. The murder rate in 2013 stood at
335, a historic low, moving New York below Chicago—a city with
under one-third of New York’s population.
As some threats recede, others mature. The frequency of terrorism
and natural disasters has changed the nature of urban safety:
power, communications and transport systems must be robust and
able to withstand new external shocks. Meanwhile, new risks
emerge. Cyber risk has accompanied the advent of the digital age.
Urban safety is therefore a critical issue that is set to become
even more important over time. Securing public safety means
addressing a wide—and evolving—range of risks. The Safe Cities
Index aims to capture this complexity. The Index tracks the
relative safety of a city across four categories: digital
security, health security, infrastructure safety and personal
safety. The Index’s key findings include the following.
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Tokyo tops the overall ranking. The world’s
most populous city is also the safest in the Index. The Japanese
capital performs most strongly in the digital security category,
three points ahead of Singapore in second place. Meanwhile,
Jakarta is at the bottom of the list of 50 cities in the Index.
The Indonesian capital only rises out of the bottom five places
in the health security category (44).
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Safety is closely linked to wealth and economic development. Unsurprisingly, a division emerges in the Index between cities
in developed markets, which tend to fall into the top half of
the overall list, and cities in developing markets, which appear
in the bottom half. Significant gaps in safety exist along these
lines within regions. Rich Asian cities (Tokyo, Singapore and
Osaka) occupy the top three positions in the Index, while poorer
neighbours (Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta) fill two of the bottom
three positions.
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However, wealth and ample resources are no guarantee of urban
safety. Four of the five Middle Eastern cities in the Index are
considered high-income, but only one makes it into the top half
of the Index: at 25 Abu Dhabi is 21 places above Riyadh at
number 46. Similar divides between cities of comparable economic
status exist elsewhere. Seoul is 23 positions below Tokyo in the
overall ranking (and 46 places separate the two on digital
security).
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US cities perform most strongly in the digital
security category, while Europe struggles. New
York is the only US city to make it into the top ten of the
overall index (at 10). However, it is third for digital
security, with three of the four other US cities in the Index
(Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago) joining it in the top
ten. Meanwhile, European cities perform relatively poorly.
London, at 16, is the highest-ranking European entry in the
digital security index; Rome is the lowest, at 35.
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Leaders in digital security must not overlook real-world
risks. Los Angeles falls from 6th place in digital security to 23rd
for personal safety. San Francisco suffers a similar drop,
falling from 8th to 21st. For these cities—both home to
high-tech industries—a focus on technology and cyber security
does not seem to be matched by success in combating physical
crime. Urban safety initiatives need to straddle the digital and
physical realms as the divide between them blurs.
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Technology is now on the frontline of urban safety, alongside
people.
Data are being used to tackle crime, monitor infrastructure and
limit the spread of disease. As some cities pursue smarter
methods of preventing—rather than simply reacting to—these
diverse security threats, a lack of data in emerging markets
could exacerbate the urban safety divide between rich and poor.
Nonetheless, investment in traditional safety methods, such as
bolstering police visibility, continues to deliver positive
results from Spain to South Africa.
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Collaboration on safety is critical in a complex urban
environment. Now that a growing number of essential systems are
interconnected, city experts stress the need to bring together
representatives from government, business and the community
before threats to safety and security strike. Some cities have
appointed an official to co-ordinate this citywide resilience.
With the evolution of online threats transcending geographical
boundaries, such co-ordination will increasingly be called for
between cities.
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Being statistically safe is not the same as feeling
safe.
Out of the 50 cities, only Zurich and Mexico City get the same
rank in the overall index as they do in the indicator that
measures the perception of safety among their citizens. Urban
citizens in the US, for instance, tend to feel less safe than
they should, based on their city’s position in the Index. The
challenge for city leaders is to translate progress on safety
into changing public perceptions. But cities also aspire to be
attractive places to live in. So smart solutions, such as
intelligent lighting, should be pursued over ubiquitous cameras
or gated communities.
